Global oil consumption growth slows, EIA warns
- AMP
- May 21
- 2 min read
In its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) warns that global oil consumption growth is losing steam.
The main culprit? A sluggish global economy, particularly in Asia, that's weighing on trade, transport, and energy demand.
Key takeaways for the oil & gas Sector:
Slower Global Growth Ahead The EIA forecasts global GDP to grow just 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026—among the lowest rates since 2008 (excluding the 2009 and 2020 contractions).
Oil Demand Follows Economic Momentum Historically, oil demand grows less when global GDP rises below 3%. That’s the case now, with consumption expected to lag accordingly.
Three Years of Sub-1 Million b/d Growth Global oil demand is still growing, but by less than 1 million barrels per day (b/d) per year—marking three consecutive years below that threshold, a break from the pre-pandemic norm of 1.3 million b/d.
Asia Feels the Brunt The most significant cut in consumption growth is in Asia. Forecasts have been revised from 0.7 to 0.5 million b/d on average for 2025 and 2026.
Downward Revisions Across the Board The global forecast has been lowered by 0.4 million b/d for 2025 and by 0.1 million b/d for 2026 compared to the January report.
Trade Tensions Are a Drag Tariffs announced in April may already be cooling international trade, which trickles down to oil demand—less cargo means fewer shipping and transport fuel needs.
Bloomberg Data Shows Declining Ship Departures Preliminary figures point to reduced container ship activity, a potential early sign of weakening global trade volume.
Freight, Travel & Industry Take a Hit Weaker trade impacts not only shipping but also trucking, job creation, and tourism—all of which are oil-intensive sectors.
The Role of Population and Mobility While factors like population growth and mobility still support oil demand, they’re not strong enough to offset broader economic stagnation.
Expect Stability in Other Regions: The Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa show only minor changes in projected consumption—Asia remains the central variable in this forecast.
Global oil consumption growth slows, EIA warns
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