IEA Outlook: Oil and Gas opportunities through 2030

2025 is proving to be a turbulent year for the oil and gas market.

Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and shifts in energy policies have put pressure on both demand and prices. 

OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, began phasing out the production cuts implemented in 2023, driving international prices to a four-year low in April and May. 

This forced many companies to review their investment plans, although tensions in the Middle East have once again provided price support.

Demand: growth slowing down

The IEA projects global demand will grow by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) between now and 2030, reaching a ceiling of around 105.5 mb/d. 

However, the pace is slowing: from about 700 thousand barrels per day of growth in 2025–2026, it is expected to shrink to nearly zero by 2029, with a slight drop in 2030. 

The reasons include sluggish global economic growth, greater adoption of electric vehicles (set to displace 5.4 mb/d by 2030), and the substitution of oil in power generation, particularly in Saudi Arabia, which will cut its oil use for electricity by 1 mb/d.

The big exception will be the petrochemical sector: from 2026 onward, it is expected to be the main driver of growth, fueled by plastics and synthetic fiber production from natural gas liquids (NGLs). 

India will lead consumption growth with an increase of 1 mb/d, while China, after years of strong expansion, will stabilize thanks to investments in high-speed rail, LNG trucks, and electric cars.

Supply: capacity outpacing demand

Global production capacity is projected to rise by 5.1 mb/d by 2030, reaching 114.7 mb/d, led by Saudi Arabia and the United States. 

This will far exceed the increase in demand, potentially pushing prices down if production is not adjusted. Growth will be strongest in the first half of the period and will slow after 2029.

NGLs will account for nearly half of the total increase, driven largely by the Middle East and the United States. 

In crude oil, the largest increases will come from the United Arab Emirates (+720 kb/d) and Iraq (+560 kb/d), while Mexico is expected to see the biggest drop.

IEA Outlook: Oil and Gas Opportunities Through 2030

Refining and trade: excess capacity

Refined product demand is set to peak in 2027 before declining due to reduced gasoline and diesel consumption. 

Even so, new refining capacity will outpace needs, especially in Asia, putting pressure on less competitive plants in Europe and on the U.S. West Coast. 

Asia, led by India and China, will continue to absorb much of the world’s crude imports, further strengthening the Middle East’s role as a major export hub.

For offshore platform workers

The outlook shows that the market will continue to need oil, but with slower growth and tougher competition among producers. 

Opportunities will lie in cost optimization, efficiency improvements, and focusing on niches such as petrochemicals and NGLs. 

The energy transition is advancing, but it will not remove oil from the picture this decade. 

However, persistent pressure from lower prices and stronger competition will remain a defining factor.