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The future of global oil production: players shaping supply


Global oil production reached approximately 101.8 million b/d in 2023, with expectations of an increase of 0.4 million b/d in 2024 and 2.0 million b/d in 2025, largely driven by the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil, according to the EIA. 


This projected growth will offset short-term voluntary production cuts by OPEC+ members, which contributed to 43% of global production in 2023


Despite a projected drop in OPEC+ production of 1.0 million b/d in 2024, a rebound is expected in 2025 when production cuts expire. 


Non-OPEC+ countries, particularly those in the Americas that are not affected by OPEC+ agreements, are expected to substantially increase their production, ensuring a stable and gradually growing global oil supply without placing significant pressure on crude oil prices.


United States

In 2023, the U.S. led in crude oil and petroleum liquids production, achieving a significant milestone with 13.3 million b/d by year-end, thanks to drilling efficiencies. 

Despite a temporary dip in early 2024 due to winter disruptions, projections show an increase of 0.4 million b/d in 2024 and 0.8 million b/d in 2025. 

This growth underscores the U.S.'s dominant role in the global oil landscape, driven by technological advancements in tight oil formations.


Canada

Canada has seen a steady rise in crude oil output, primarily from Alberta's tar sands. 

However, growth has recently slowed due to logistical constraints. 

The anticipated Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline could enhance access to global markets via the Pacific Coast, potentially tripling the region's production capacity and spurring increased production by reducing the current discount on Canadian crude.


The future of global oil production: players shaping supply
The future of global oil production: players shaping supply


Brazil

Brazil's oil production is on the rise, fueled by major offshore discoveries. 

With plans to deploy 11 new Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO) vessels by 2027, Brazil is set to expand its output significantly. 

Key developments in the pre-salt fields of the Santos Basin and the recent Mero field startup in the Campos Basin highlight Brazil's growing influence in the global oil sector.


Guyana

Guyana's emergence as a significant oil producer has been meteoric. 

Since its first crude discovery in 2015 and production commencement in 2019, projects like Liza and Payara have propelled its output to 645,000 b/d in early 2024. 

The upcoming Yellowtail project is expected to further boost Guyana's petroleum liquids production by 100,000 b/d in 2025, solidifying its position in the global oil market.


Challenges and Considerations

While these countries are set to contribute substantially to global supply growth, project delays and logistical issues could impact overall supply and trade dynamics. The successful realization of these long-term projects, despite potential hurdles, remains crucial for maintaining global oil flow.


These four nations, driving forward with their respective projects and innovations, are pivotal in addressing the complex balance of global oil supply and demand, ensuring stability in the ever-evolving energy landscape.




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