OPEC+ sees rising oil demand and balanced market by 2026

Global oil demand is holding firm, and even accelerating,according to the latest outlook from OPEC+, published Reuters. 

The group, which includes OPEC members, Russia, and allied producers, foresees global consumption growing by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and expanding slightly faster in 2026. 

Far from signaling decline, OPEC+ sees steady demand supported by robust economic performance across key economies such as the United States, Japan, India, and China.

The group’s newest monthly report reflects an important shift: instead of a significant shortfall in supply by 2026, OPEC+ now expects the balance between production and consumption to tighten modestly as additional barrels enter the market. 

The alliance has accelerated the unwinding of previous output cuts, with September production rising by 630,000 bpd to reach 43.05 million bpd.

While analysts had warned that this increase might lead to a surplus, OPEC+ believes market fundamentals remain strong. 

Demand for the group’s crude is projected at 43.1 million bpd in 2026, nearly matching supply.

In other words, the oil market appears well balanced, not oversaturated.

OPEC’s view also stands out for its optimism compared to institutions like the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates faster progress in the energy transition. 

OPEC+, however, argues that global energy needs will continue to rely heavily on oil for years to come, especially as developing nations expand their infrastructure and industrial output.

Oil prices, which recently hovered around $63 per barrel, have come under temporary pressure from concerns of oversupply. 

But long-term fundamentals suggest stability rather than collapse. 

Even major producers outside OPEC+, including the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, are contributing to global supply growth that OPEC+ sees as manageable rather than threatening.

OPEC+ sees rising oil demand and balanced market by 2026

Key points to understand OPEC+

• Steady growth: Global demand expected to rise by 1.3 million bpd in 2025 and at a slightly higher rate in 2026.

• Economic confidence: Upward revisions for U.S. and Japan, and solid performance in India and China reinforce optimism.

• Balanced market: OPEC+ output (43.05 million bpd) nearly matches projected 2026 demand (43.1 million bpd).

• Gradual adjustment: Production increases aim to regain market share, not flood the market.

• Positive long-term view: Despite short-term volatility, OPEC+ and industry leaders foresee tighter markets in the years ahead.

OPEC+’s perspective sends a clear message: global demand for oil remains resilient, and energy markets continue to adapt to economic growth rather than retreat from it.