OPEC+ will consider a new supply increase for August

While oil demand remains uncertain and prices continue to cool, the OPEC+ alliance appears ready to authorize yet another increase in crude oil output. 

According to media reports, delegates and industry surveys, a fourth consecutive production hike—this time of 411,000 barrels per day (b/d)—is expected to be approved during the group’s virtual meeting this Sunday.

That figure might not sound dramatic on its own, but the pace and pattern of these additions mark a notable shift from past strategies.

After slashing production by 2.2 million b/d in 2023 to support oil prices, the group has already restored nearly two-thirds of that reduction, much faster than originally planned.

So what’s driving this accelerated return of supply?

Things you should know about this decision

Output remains on the rise.

OPEC+ is expected to approve its fourth straight monthly output increase of 411,000 b/d, starting in August.

Motivation: regain market share.

Saudi Arabia is determined to reclaim volumes lost to U.S. shale producers and other rivals, and is leading this push.

A silent shift in strategy.

Compared to 2023’s restraint, the group is now opening the taps—even with sluggish demand and signs of oversupply.

Market reacts with falling prices.

Brent crude futures have dropped below $68 per barrel, down over 9% year-to-date, easing inflation but squeezing producers.

Discipline remains uneven.

Several OPEC+ members, especially Kazakhstan, continue to overproduce beyond their agreed limits, frustrating efforts to balance the market.

Not all increases materialize.

In May, only 154,000 of the planned 411,000 b/d were actually added, due to compensation for past overproduction by countries like Iraq and Russia.

Saudi Arabia shows resolve.

Despite the uneven compliance, Riyadh appears determined to continue increasing output and regain control of the narrative.

Russia backs down.

Initially hesitant, Russia now signals it will support the new increase if there is consensus within the group.

Potential impact on refiners.

More supply may mean lower feedstock costs, but continued volatility in pricing could complicate longer-term planning.

Prices may fall further.

Analysts at JPMorgan forecast Brent could fall to $60 per barrel by the end of the year—and even lower in 2026.

As OPEC+ continues adjusting its strategy, keeping an eye on both the volumes and the politics behind them will remain key to anticipating price trends and refining economics.

OPEC+ will consider a new supply increase for August