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Gasoline market bets on vacationers

Updated: Jun 9, 2023

An improvement in gasoline consumption is expected by the Global Refining Industry between June and August, as it places its trust in American drivers.

Currently, gasoline consumption seems to be exceeding last year's levels due to the falling price of this fuel, and the U.S. Government estimates a national consumption of 9.09 million barrels per day during the vacation months.

However, this forecast still does not surpass pre-pandemic levels, which negatively impacts the country's refineries.

Specialists agree that the global refining industry is returning to a time when world demand for products will be surpassed.

There are certainly some glimmers of hope for refining. In China, fuel manufacturers have been increasing production to meet the rising demand for gasoline and jet fuel, driven by more cars on the road and increased air travel, as Bloomberg reports.

On the other hand, the world demand for jet fuel is expected to increase until it reaches levels very close to pre-pandemic levels. However, only 10% of the crude oil obtained in the United States is converted into this fuel, compared to 60% for gasoline.

Why is demand for gasoline not growing to pre pandemic levels?

Gasoline demand peaking in 2019 could be attributed to multiple factors reflecting societal and technological shifts.

First, energy efficiency has seen significant improvements, with vehicles becoming more fuel-efficient due to technological advancements and stricter emission standards. This means that cars are using less gasoline to travel the same distance, reducing overall demand.

Second, electrification of transportation is a key factor. Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming more affordable and their range capabilities are improving. As infrastructure develops, charging EVs becomes easier and more convenient, reducing the need for gasoline.

Third, societal shifts towards more sustainable living also play a part. More people are opting for public transportation, cycling, or walking instead of using personal vehicles. Remote work, spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, has remained popular, reducing commuting and thus gasoline consumption.

Lastly, the global trend towards renewable energy sources to combat climate change reduces reliance on fossil fuels, including gasoline. This transition is incentivized by governmental policies, which often aim to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainable energy alternatives.

Collectively, these factors contribute to a decrease in gasoline demand post-2019.

Demand for gasoline

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