OPEC+ accelerates reversal of voluntary oil cuts

Eight influential members of the OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Algeria, Oman, and Kazakhstan, have agreed to fully reverse their voluntary oil production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d) by September 2025, according to Argus.

This decision marks a fast-track approach to restoring output levels, moving far ahead of the original schedule that extended through September 2026.

A faster rebound than planned

The group’s plan was initially to reinstate production gradually over 18 months. 

However, by matching August’s increase of 547,000 b/d in September, they will have completed the full restoration of 2.46 million b/d in just six months. 

This includes a capacity reallocation of 300,000 b/d for the United Arab Emirates, reflecting structural adjustments within the alliance.

While this signals the end of the first phase of voluntary cuts, the OPEC+ alliance emphasized its flexibility. 

According to their joint statement, the phased reversal could be paused or reversed depending on market dynamics.

Phase two already on the horizon

The same eight nations, along with Gabon, could begin discussions to gradually unwind a second set of voluntary cuts amounting to 1.66 million b/d, which are scheduled to remain until end-2026. 

Some members, however, face domestic concerns regarding their ability to ramp up production, which may reveal potential limits in spare capacity across the alliance.

Global uncertainty influences strategy

This decision arrives at a moment of global uncertainty. U.S. threats of secondary sanctions on Russian oil and unstable trade conditions have added layers of risk. 

Yet, OPEC+ leaders cited strong global economic prospects and tight oil inventories as justification for the accelerated pace.

As of August 1, Brent crude prices hovered just below $70 per barrel, largely unchanged since the group’s last gathering in early July. 

Still, the real supply increase might fall short of announced levels. 

Several members are already producing above agreed targets and have pledged to compensate for previous overproduction, which could dilute the actual impact.

The alliance is set to reconvene on September 7, where the next steps on phase two cuts and broader strategy may unfold.

OPEC+ membership snapshot

The broader OPEC+ coalition includes the 13 OPEC countries, Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela, plus 10 additional allies: Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Oman, Sudan, South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, and Brunei. 

The eight countries spearheading this reversal represent the bloc’s most influential players in terms of production capacity.

OPEC+ accelerates reversal of voluntary oil cuts