OPEC seminar: optimism and tight markets in global oil demand

The most influential voices in the oil industry gathered at the recent OPEC Seminar in Vienna, where executives from state oil companies and international majors shared a clear and unified outlook: short-term oil demand remains strong and shows signs of continued growth.

Here are 10 of the most relevant insights from the seminar:

1. Short-term demand growth holds firm 

According to Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, global oil demand is set to grow by 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day during the remainder of 2025, driven largely by developing economies, U.S. gasoline consumption, and Chinese petrochemical expansion, according to Argus.

2. Developing Countries will drive future growth 

Nasser emphasized that per capita oil consumption in developing nations remains far below that of Europe or the U.S., suggesting a long runway for future demand increases.

3. Asia’s physical market shows strong appetite 

Asian buyers—particularly from China, Japan, and South Korea, are signaling confidence in future demand.

Kuwait’s KPC CEO, Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, shared that these nations have asked for additional crude barrels, not less.

4. A balanced market, not oversupplied 

Al-Sabah highlighted that this demand points to a balanced market, not one flooded with oversupply.

He noted that even as the summer season ends, strong buying interest is expected to persist.

5. Confidence in OPEC+ supply decisions 

The market reacted positively to OPEC+’s decision to advance production increases in August.

Al-Sabah added that non-OPEC supply growth remains limited, and unlikely to surpass growing demand.

6. Tight conditions across fuel types 

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss pointed to tightness across the board, oil, gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel, citing low storage levels globally, with China actively investing in more storage capacity.

7. 1% Annual growth still strong 

Auchincloss projects a solid 1% oil demand growth for 2025, reinforcing the sense of a constrained but resilient supply-demand balance.

8. Shell Sees Healthy Fundamentals 

Shell CEO Wael Sawan echoed the tightness in supply, describing the market as having a “healthy balance” between available barrels and consumption needs.

9. TotalEnergies Cautions on China, But Sees Growth Elsewhere 

Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of TotalEnergies, noted a slower rate of growth in China, from 700,000–800,000 barrels/day in past years to just over 300,000 today.

However, he expects India and other emerging markets to absorb the difference.

10. Global demand keeps rising: supply must keep up 

Despite regional variations, Pouyanne emphasized that global oil demand is still increasing, and producers must ensure supply can keep pace to avoid market stress.

As the seminar made clear, oil markets remain physically tight, with emerging economies driving future growth.

For businesses and analysts alike, this reinforces the importance of staying closely attuned to supply chain developments, policy shifts, and the dynamics of Asia’s major energy consumers.

OPEC seminar: optimism and tight markets in global oil demand