Latin America powers global crude growth heading into 2026
- AMP
- 7 hours ago
- 2 min read
Global crude oil production is set to grow by 0.8 million b/d in 2026, and Latin America will be responsible for half of it.
Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina alone add 0.4 million b/d, reinforcing the Americas as the world’s most dynamic source of new oil supply, according to EIA.
For clients operating in the region, or sourcing from Houston, this matters. Growth is shifting toward stable, long-term offshore and shale projects that favor predictable logistics, blending needs, and specialized services.
The global picture
Since 2023, non-OPEC+ countries have driven supply expansion.
2024: Non-OPEC+ grew by 1.1 million b/d, but OPEC+ cuts pushed global output down by 0.2 million b/d.
2025: Production rebounded by 2.2 million b/d, with 1.7 million b/d from non-OPEC+.
2026: One of every two new barrels will come from Latin America.
Brazil: deepwater becomes a powerhouse
Brazil crossed 4 million b/d for the first time in October 2025.
The surge comes from new FPSOs tied to deepwater fields, including Equinor’s landmark Bacalhau project.
2025 growth: +0.4 million b/d
2026 outlook: Two new FPSOs in Búzios push output to 4 million b/d average
Brazil’s model, large FPSO clusters, consistent ramp-up, international operatorship, is now shaping regional development standards.
Guyana: the fastest-growing producer on earth
Guyana’s rise is unprecedented: output is 10x higher than in 2020.
2025 average: ~750,000 b/d
Late 2025: Above 900,000 b/d thanks to Yellowtail reaching full capacity
2026 growth: +140,000 b/d
2027 projection: Surpasses 1 million b/d when Uaru adds 250,000 b/d
Initially exporting to the Americas and Europe, Guyana is now sending more barrels to Asia, reshaping trade flows.
Argentina: Vaca Muerta changes the map
After years of decline, Argentina’s production is climbing due to the Vaca Muerta shale play, one of the world’s only major unconventional oil developments outside the U.S.
2024 average: 670,000 b/d
2025 estimate: 740,000 b/d
2026 projection: 810,000 b/d
Vaca Muerta share: 62% of total output in 2025
Argentina is now South America’s fourth-largest producer and a growing force in regional supply chains.
Why this matters
Houston sits at the center of this transformation. More FPSOs, more shale, more Atlantic-basin crude means:
More blending and quality management needs
More specialized logistics from port to refinery
More long-term project stability and predictable cycles
More opportunities for U.S. Gulf Coast operators, suppliers, and service companies
Latin America isn’t just growing, it’s leading.
And the companies prepared to work with that momentum will capture the next decade of energy opportunity.
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