Understand the U.S. Oil Production Outlook for 2026–2027

According to the latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil production is set to stay close to the historic highs reached in 2025. 

Output is expected to hover around 13.6 million barrels per day before easing to roughly 13.3 million b/d in 2026–2027. 

If confirmed, this would mark the first annual decline since 2021, an important signal for operators, traders, and service companies alike.

Prices, not geology, drive the slowdown

The main factor behind this shift is price. Lower crude prices reduce the incentive to drill, particularly onshore. 

The EIA expects WTI crude to fall from an average of $65 per barrel in 2025 to about $52 in 2026 and $50 in 2027. 

These levels sit below the breakeven prices reported by operators in key basins, tightening margins and slowing new drilling programs.

The Permian remains central—but flattens

The Permian Basin remains the backbone of U.S. production, accounting for nearly half of total output in 2025. 

However, growth is expected to stall. Production should average around 6.6 million b/d in 2026 before edging down slightly in 2027 as drilling activity cools despite productivity gains.

Offshore Gulf gains offset onshore declines

While onshore output softens, offshore production tells a different story. 

The Gulf of America is forecast to rise from 1.9 million b/d in 2025 to a record 2.0 million b/d in 2026, driven by new fields coming online. 

A modest decline is expected in 2027 as natural field depletion sets in.

Alaska stages a quiet comeback

After decades of decline, Alaska is poised for gradual growth. New projects such as Nuna and Pikka could lift production from 0.4 million b/d in 2025 to 0.5 million b/d by 2027, the first sustained increase since 2017 and the strongest since 2002.

For the oil and gas value chain, the message is clear: U.S. production is not collapsing, but it is becoming more price-sensitive and regionally uneven. 

Offshore and Alaska offer stability, while onshore growth depends heavily on price recovery. 

For decision-makers, 2026–2027 will be less about rapid expansion and more about efficiency, capital discipline, and timing.

Understand the U.S. Oil Production Outlook for 2026–2027