U.S. gas output to hit record highs in 2026–2027

U.S. natural gas production is heading toward a new peak. 

According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), marketed natural gas production is forecast to grow 2% in 2026, reaching an average of 120.8 Bcf/d, and then climb again to a record 122.3 Bcf/d in 2027.

For operators, service companies, and supply chain partners, this isn’t just another headline. 

It’s a signal that drilling economics, regional competitiveness, LNG export pull, and infrastructure bottlenecks will shape where production grows—and who benefits.

Why this matters

Most of the U.S. natural gas production growth in the next two years will come from three core regions:

Appalachia

Haynesville

Permian

Together, these basins account for ~69% of forecast production through 2026 and 2027.

But the story is not the same in each region. In fact, the reason gas grows is completely different depending on where you are operating.

Key points 

U.S. marketed gas production is forecast to average 120.8 Bcf/d in 2026 and 122.3 Bcf/d in 2027

69% of production growth is concentrated in Appalachia, Haynesville, and Permian

Haynesville grows fastest because higher gas prices keep drilling economical

Permian growth is driven by associated gas, even as oil prices weaken

Appalachia grows modestly, now helped by new pipeline capacity (Mountain Valley Pipeline)

U.S. gas output to hit record highs in 2026–2027

The regional breakdown: where the growth comes from

1) Haynesville: the gas-price-driven growth engine

The Haynesville region (East Texas and Louisiana) is forecast to deliver strong production growth:

+1.2 Bcf/d in 2026

+1.6 Bcf/d in 2027

The key reason: natural gas prices are expected to stay relatively elevated, improving drilling economics even though Haynesville wells are typically deeper and more expensive to develop.

Forecast prices:

$3.52/MMBtu in 2025

$4.31/MMBtu in 2026

$4.38/MMBtu in 2027

Another major advantage: Haynesville is close to LNG export terminals and large industrial gas consumers along the Gulf Coast, which keeps demand and commercial interest strong.

Operator takeaway: Haynesville remains a prime target for drilling programs tied to LNG-driven demand and stronger gas pricing.

2) Permian: gas growth without “gas drilling”

The Permian continues to play a major role in U.S. gas supply, but its growth is not coming from gas-directed drilling.

Forecast contribution:

+1.4 Bcf/d in 2026

+0.6 Bcf/d in 2027

In the Permian, natural gas production grows mostly from associated gas, produced during oil drilling.

The interesting twist is that oil economics are expected to weaken:

WTI forecast falls from $65/b in 2025

to $53/b in 2026

and $49/b in 2027

Even so, gas production is expected to rise because of one critical technical trend: gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) is increasing, and that trend is expected to continue.

Operator takeaway: Permian gas supply remains resilient, even with softer oil prices, because production is increasingly gas-rich.

3) Appalachia: still the biggest, but constrained

Appalachia has been the backbone of U.S. Lower 48 natural gas production for nearly a decade.

It has accounted for about:

32% of U.S. Lower 48 production annually since 2016

However, growth has slowed in recent years due to one simple issue: pipeline capacity constraints.

That constraint begins to ease with a key infrastructure milestone:

In June 2024, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authorized the Mountain Valley Pipeline to begin operations.

Forecast growth is modest but improving:

+0.3 Bcf/d in 2026

+0.5 Bcf/d in 2027

Operator takeaway: Appalachia remains a dominant supply region, but growth depends heavily on takeaway capacity and infrastructure.