What to expect from Global Oil Production until 2030?

AMP
Jun 18
2 min read

As geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty continue to shape the global landscape, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its Oil 2025 report.

This medium-term outlook offers a deep dive into how global oil supply, demand, and refining trends may evolve by the end of the decade. Here are the most important takeaways:

Supply will outpace demand

Global oil production capacity is expected to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day (mb/d), reaching 114.7 mb/d by 2030.
In contrast, demand will grow by just 2.5 mb/d, plateauing at around 105.5 mb/d by the decade’s end.
This imbalance points to a well-supplied oil market, barring major disruptions.

China’s oil demand set to peak

After more than a decade of driving global oil demand, China’s consumption is expected to peak in 2027.
The reasons? Rapid electric vehicle (EV) adoption, high-speed rail expansion, and increased use of natural gas trucks.

Slower U.S. growth, but still key

The U.S. remains the largest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth, though its pace is slowing due to capital discipline.
Other key producers expected to increase output include Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina.

EVs are reshaping oil demand

Sales of electric cars hit 17 million in 2024 and are on track to exceed 20 million in 2025.
By 2030, EVs are projected to displace 5.4 mb/d of oil demand worldwide.

Petrochemicals take center stage

From 2026 onward, petrochemicals will become the leading source of oil demand growth.
By 2030, the industry is expected to consume 1 in every 6 barrels of oil.

Refining sector faces overcapacity

As demand for refined fuels lags behind, refinery capacity is set to surpass product demand by 2030.
This will likely lead to shutdowns of underutilized facilities.

Jet fuel demand still rising

Even as other segments stabilize or decline, jet fuel demand continues to grow, driven by global air travel.

Geopolitical risks remain high

Although the supply outlook is strong, conflicts like Israel-Iran and broader trade tensions are ongoing threats to energy security.
The IEA warns that complacency is not an option when it comes to oil supply stability.