Can Venezuelan oil rebound to pre-blockade levels by 2026?
- AMP
- 6 hours ago
- 2 min read
What if one of the world’s most oil-rich countries suddenly plugged the tap again after a period of near-shutdown?
That’s essentially what the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is suggesting: Venezuela could return to its pre-blockade oil production levels by mid-2026, a dramatic turnaround from just months ago.
In late 2025, a strict U.S. naval blockade had effectively cut Venezuela out of global crude markets, forcing state oil giant PDVSA to slash output.
Exports dried up, storage tanks filled to the brim, and millions of barrels of crude piled up on shore and on vessels at sea, a chokepoint that threatened the very lifeblood of the Venezuelan economy.
But here’s how the story is shifting: Washington has recently expanded general licenses that let more companies transport, sell and export Venezuelan oil, loosening some of the restrictions that blocked market access.
The result? PDVSA has already clawed back much of its lost production , now near 1 million barrels per day, and the EIA says that trend could fully restore output to the 1.1–1.2 million bpd range seen before the blockade by mid-2026, Reuters published.
More than just policy adjustments are at work:
Major commodity traders like Vitol and Trafigura have been authorized to work alongside Chevron in exporting Venezuelan crude, helping alleviate the storage backlog that had choked exports.
A portion of the oil waiting in Caribbean terminals is now expected to move to refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Expanded U.S. licensing not only boosts distribution channels but also signals a broader shift toward reopening Venezuelan energy exports globally.
If this recovery plays out, it could have wide-reaching effects on global oil markets.
The EIA’s outlook also forecasts that world oil production will outpace demand through 2027, increasing inventories and putting downward pressure on crude prices.
It expects Brent crude to average around $57.69 per barrel this year and to soften further next year.
Of course, the broader context matters: Venezuela’s oil sector has struggled for years due to underinvestment and outdated infrastructure, and some independent analysts suggest deeper structural reform and investment will be needed for a sustained upswing.
So the big question isn’t just whether Venezuela can get back to producing at pre-blockade levels, but whether this recovery will stick and change the dynamics of oil markets in the region and beyond.
