US hydrocarbon exports drive the next decade

AMP
Jul 14
2 min read

The next ten years will be defined by the global appetite for U.S. hydrocarbons.

As international markets demand more energy at competitive prices, the United States is in a strong position to respond, with oil and natural gas production projected to stay high through 2030 and beyond.

These insights come from the Annual Energy Outlook 2025, a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which outlines long-term trends based on market conditions and policy updates available through late 2024.

Key Takeaways from AEO2025

Crude oil production to peak around 2030

U.S. crude output is expected to reach 14.0 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2027–2028, compared to 13.2 million b/d in 2024.
In high-growth scenarios, production could climb to nearly 18 million b/d by the early 2030s.
Growth is driven by the Permian Basin and assumes high prices or greater well productivity.
After 2030, most scenarios show a decline due to falling domestic demand and lower well performance.

Natural gas production stays strong

Dry natural gas output is projected to rise from 38.4 Tcf in 2024 to as high as 44.3 Tcf in the early 2030s.
Production remains relatively flat through 2050, depending on oil output and drilling economics.
More oil = more associated natural gas; less oil = flatter gas production.

Export growth fuels production

Exports of petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG) support continued hydrocarbon output.
U.S. remains a net exporter through 2050 in all cases, helped by expanding export terminal capacity.
LNG exports could reach 9.8 Tcf in 2040, more than double 2024 levels.

What the model assumes

All LNG export growth through 2028 comes from existing or under-construction terminals.
The pause on LNG permitting from 2024 is lifted in 2025 and not considered a limiting factor.
From 2030 to 2050, up to 0.8 Tcf/year of new LNG capacity may be added if economically viable.

Costs rise after 2040

Henry Hub natural gas prices are expected to rise from $2.88/MMBtu in 2025 to $4.80/MMBtu in 2050.
As cheaper resources deplete, producers must rely on higher-cost fields, limiting future expansion.
LNG growth slows after 2040 due to these increasing production costs.