Will OPEC+ increase its production in May?

OPEC+, the alliance of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is expected to move forward with a planned increase in oil production for May, according to sources close to Reuters.

The scheduled hike—135,000 barrels per day—would mark the second consecutive monthly rise as the group cautiously unwinds some of the deep cuts made since 2022.

A delicate balancing act

The strategy is a balancing act. While disciplined members may see their production targets raised, those who previously exceeded quotas are being asked to cut back to compensate. 

Seven countries will apply additional monthly reductions until mid-2026 to make up for past overproduction, a move designed to help stabilize the market while allowing OPEC+ to gradually increase output.

Compensatory cuts to offset growth

Although these compensatory cuts are theoretically larger than the monthly increases, they offer a way for the group to maintain credibility while slowly adapting to changing global demand. 

Analysts believe current factors—such as low oil inventories and expected demand growth in the summer—support continued increases.

Still, the real test will be whether the new compensation plan truly offsets the added volume.

Eyes on April and the market’s reaction

With Brent crude stabilizing above $72 a barrel, OPEC+ is walking a fine line between price support and supply flexibility. 

The next key date is April 5, when the group’s ministerial committee meets to assess market conditions and possibly adjust the roadmap.

Why this matters

For producers and traders alike, May could set the tone for the months ahead.

The success—or strain—of OPEC+’s production policy will shape supply flows, price trends, and planning strategies across the oil and gas industry.

Will OPEC+ increase its production in May?